Performance
Unit curve (base 100)
Calibration events
- v1.103-14v1.1: optimized params (8% / 4% edges, $20 cap)
- PO04-14Playoffs begin — pace shift
- Pause04-24Pause overs (playoff defense)
- Resume05-15Resume overs (model recalibrated on playoff data)
Hypothetical P&L by market — model suggestions
What P&L would have looked like if every above-threshold model suggestion had been Kelly-sized and bet. Each line ends when the model stopped surfacing that market — moneyline and spread were dropped early because the data showed no real edge there.
| Market | Bets | W–L | Win% | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 12 | 5–7 | 41.7% | $-17.34 |
| Moneyline | 28 | 10–18 | 35.7% | $-40.72 |
| Totals (Over/Under) | 174 | 94–80 | 54.0% | $-114.54 |
Audit Trail
Every pick file is cryptographically timestamped on the Bitcoin blockchain. Pre-game ✓ means the proof was created before games started — proving the prediction was locked in pre-game. Retro means the file was back-stamped after the fact; this still proves the file has not been altered since the stamp date, but cannot prove pre-game timing. Click Verify to confirm any proof directly from Bitcoin.
How to verify the blockchain timestamp on your own
Each picks file is hashed and the hash is committed to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. This proves the file existed before the first Bitcoin block mined after it was stamped — i.e., before any game that day could have started.
- 1Download both filesClick Download JSON to get the picks file, then Download OTS Proof to get the timestamp proof. Keep them in the same folder with the same base name (e.g.,
2026-02-21.jsonand2026-02-21.json.ots). - 2Open the OpenTimestamps verifierGo to opentimestamps.org and scroll to the Stamp & Verify section.
- 3Upload the .ots proof fileDrag the
.otsfile into the verification box. The site will automatically look for a matching document to hash. - 4Upload the JSON picks fileWhen prompted, also upload the
.jsonfile. The verifier hashes it and checks that the hash is embedded in the.otsproof chain. - 5Read the resultA successful verification will show a green confirmation with the Bitcoin block number and timestamp — proving the exact picks were published to the blockchain before that block was mined. Any alteration to the JSON would cause the hash to mismatch and verification to fail.
Prefer the command line? Install opentimestamps-client via pip and run: ots verify 2026-02-21.json.ots