A statistical model finds where the public has mispriced tonight’s games. Every pick is cryptographically stamped to a public GitHub timeline the moment it’s generated — hours before puck, pitch, or tip. We can’t back-edit the record. You can prove it.
Every pick graded against the pre-game stamp. You see the losses because you’d see them anyway. The badge on the right shows the win/loss + links to the pre-game receipt.
Every curated pick is committed to a public GitHub timeline and signed to Sigstore Rekor — a transparency log run by the Linux Foundation. Both stamps happen automatically, before first pitch. If we tried to quietly edit a losing pick tomorrow, the timeline would prove it.
Each pick lands in tdl_picks/{DATE}.json — a git commit signed by the pipeline bot pushed to main, minutes after generation and hours before first pitch.
The pick file's hash is submitted to the public Sigstore Rekor transparency log. Anyone can query it by hash and see the exact byte we saw at stamp time.
When the game settles, the win/loss is written against that same hash. You get the result AND proof of what the ticket said before the game started.
Every pick is published against a pre-game hash. Wins AND losses count. You can pull the tape yourself.
Confidence is priced into the Kelly stake, not the tweet. A 6.2pp edge sizes bigger than a 1.2pp edge. That's the whole ranking.
The model estimates the game. The market tells us where value is. Feeding closing lines into features is how 'sharp services' reverse-engineer the past.
Recorded picks only. Rolling windows anchor to today. Season line is a 100-unit starting bankroll. CLV is the difference between the price we bet and where the line closed — positive means we got a better number than the market ended at.
| Window | Record | Units | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1–1 | +0.91 | +20.8% | +3.72pp |
| Rolling 7 days | 4–5 | -0.54 | -2.9% | +3.50pp |
| Rolling 30 days | 43–32–1 | +19.85 | +17.5% | +2.07pp |
| Season (2026) | 240–255–13 | +44.16 | +5.1% | +0.79pp |
Three day-passes on signup. Each pass unlocks every MLB, NBA, or soccer pick for one day. Then it’s a subscription or drop off — no card required to try.